Virginia voters will head to the polls on Tuesday, Aug. 4, in a primary election being held much later than usual. When state Democrats tried to redistrict the commonwealth, they pushed back the primary date from its usual date in June.
A political analyst told News4 the runup to the major midterm elections is likely to begin with a relatively quiet primary.
Every seat in the House of Representatives and one Senate seat will be on Virginia’s ballot as the fight for control over Congress shifts from the fight to redistrict to the will of the voters. News4 asked Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, how he thinks it might shake out – and how many seats Democrats could pick up.
“I think you’re looking at two. As I say, backburner possibility of three,” he said.
Republicans control five of Virginia’s 11 seats, including Districts 1 and 2, where Democrats are applying a lot of pressure and spending a lot of money.
Sabato said he looks at District 5 as a longshot for Democrats but stresses that it’s not impossible because midterms always favor the party not currently in control in Washington. For Republicans, a lot could hinge on how voters view the country under President Donald Trump.
“People don’t care – they blame the incumbent party. They always have in American history, and they always will because it’s the only logical thing to do. Ask Joe Biden,” Sabato said.
With Tuesday’s primary so much later in the year, it will kickstart a much shorter and possibly more aggressive race to November – a race Sabato said Gov. Abigail Spanberger needs to lead.
“The governor needs to be more visible. She needs to be out on the campaign trail – partly so that Democrats can win but partly so that she can reasonably take some credit when they do, and they’re very likely to do so in this Democratic-leaning midterm year,” he said.
But the primary, Sabato thinks, could be a bit of a snoozer because while Democratic Rep. Don Beyer is being primaried in District 8, Sabato just doesn’t see it as a threat to the multiterm incumbent.
In District 7, Republicans will hold a primary to challenge incumbent Eugene Vindman, and in District 10, three Republicans seek the nomination to challenge incumbent Democrat Suhas Subramanyam.
There’s only one Republican in the race in District 11 to challenge Rep. James Walkinshaw. While there are still a couple of months to go, Northern Virginia Democrats appear to have won the fundraising battle by far. More money doesn’t guarantee a win, but it doesn’t hurt.
Just before 8 a.m. Wednesday, electricity flickered on and off for about 10 minutes. An engineer’s data says it happened throughout the Eastern half of the U.S., from Chicago to Boston and Miami. Northern Virginia Bureau Reporter Drew Wilder explains.
Sign up for our free deep-dive newsletter, The 4Front, to get standout News4 stories sent right to your inbox. Subscribe here.
