Hello and welcome to the working week.
This autumn brings a series of nail-biter democratic moments, from the local by-election battle over former British Labour prime minister Sir Keir Starmer’s vacant parliamentary seat that could be snatched by Green Party leader Zack Polanski to the hard-fought contests of the US midterms in November. But not in Russia.
The country this week holds its first election for the 450 seats in the State Duma since the start of the 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine. We already know the winner.
Unhappiness with the conflict and the economy is on the rise this year, but it is unlikely the elections will reflect that. The vote is heavily stage-managed by the Kremlin — dissent in Russia is illegal — and the only very mildly anti-war party was kicked off the ballot. So you can expect a resounding win for the Kremlin’s main United Russia party (don’t call it the ruling party).
Away from politics, the headline events of the week are a triumvirate of significant interest rate announcements courtesy of the US Federal Reserve, Bank of England and Bank of Japan.
The rising cost of US government borrowing has raised the stakes for Fed chair Kevin Warsh. So did the better than expected August payroll figures. Any failure to raise interest rates on Wednesday would appear as if he were succumbing to pressure from President Donald Trump, as my colleague Chris Giles notes in his Central Banks newsletter (available to premium subscribers). The Federal Open Market Committee decided at its last meeting in July to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.5 to 3.75 per cent.
Ongoing economic weakness is likely to push the BoE to hold UK interest rates at 3.75 per cent on Thursday. The future is less certain.
After a volatile week, traders anticipate four quarter-point rate increases over the next year, compared with an expectation of two at the start of the week, according to pricing implied by the swaps market. BoE governor Andrew Bailey warned Westminster MPs on the Treasury select committee that war and extreme weather could fuel another inflation burst. These factors make a rate rise look increasingly likely at the next meeting on November 5, which just happens to be a few days after chancellor John Healey’s first Budget speech.
The BoJ is expected to raise its policy rate on Friday to 1.25 per cent. Expectations of an increase were fuelled by the publication of a hawkish summary of expectations, with rate-setters noting that risks to inflation were still to the upside, Japan’s economic growth remained strong and the policy setting was still accommodative. Observers expect the BoJ to tighten at least once more this year.
Inflation is the main theme of the economic data run. There are updates for the EU, UK, France, India, Canada and Japan, with widespread expectations of upticks. The UK will also report its latest monthly employment numbers on Tuesday.
Results season has slowed to a trickle. The earnings call by retailer Next will be closely watched to see whether the standout success story of the British high street can continue to beat expectations. More details on the other reports below.
One more thing . . .
Too late to bag a ticket to see the Bayeux Tapestry at the British Museum? Fear not. London has another exciting gallery opening this week in South Kensington. This Wednesday the Natural History Museum is reopening a space in its Victorian halls that has been closed to the public since 1943. And the exhibition it will house, “Nature and Us”, which explores our evolving relationship with the natural world, will be free. Innovations such as this one in part explain why the Natural History Museum has overtaken the British Museum as Britain’s most popular attraction.
Any other gallery recommendations for the autumn? Email me at [email protected] or, if you are reading this from your inbox, hit reply. And have a good week.
Key economic and company reports
Here is a more complete list of what to expect in terms of company reports and economic data this week.
Monday
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Canada: August consumer price index (CPI) inflation rate data
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India: August wholesale price index (WPI) inflation rate data
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Switzerland: August producer price index (PPI) inflation rate data
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UK: Zoopla quarterly Rental Market Report
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Earnings calls: MP Evans Group HY, Global Data HY, Greencoat Renewables HY
Tuesday
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Carolyn Wilkins, an external member of the Financial Policy Committee at the Bank of England, speaks at Queen’s University Belfast.
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China: August house price index and retail sales figures
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France: August CPI inflation rate data
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UK: September labour market figures
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Earnings calls: City of London Investment Group FY, Everplay Group HY, MJ Gleeson FY, Kier FY, Princes Group HY, Trustpilot HY, Wickes HY
Wednesday
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Mitie holds a general meeting for shareholders to vote on the proposed acquisition of the company by OCS. If approved, the deal is expected to become effective in the first quarter of 2027.
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Snap launch event for its new SPECS augmented reality glasses, with Snap co-founder and chief executive Evan Spiegel speaking about the so-called “wearable computer”.
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UK: August CPI and PPI data
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US: interest rate announcement
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Earnings calls: Barratt Redrow FY, Bolloré HY, Dollarama Q2, WHSmith pre-close trading update
Thursday
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European Central Bank executive board member Philip Lane speaks at the annual research conference in Frankfurt.
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EU: August harmonised indices of consumer prices (HICP) inflation rate data
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UK: interest rate announcement
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Earnings calls: Galliford Try FY, Helvetia Baloise HY, Lennar Q3, LPP HY, Next HY
Friday
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Reserve Bank of Australia governor Michele Bullock gives evidence to the House of Representatives Standing Committee on Economics in Canberra.
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Apple’s new iPhones, the iPhone 18 Pro and iPhone 18 Pro Max, go on sale following their launch last week.
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Japan: interest rate announcement, plus August CPI inflation rate data
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UK: August retail sales in Great Britain
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US: The Conference Board leading index, plus August state employment and unemployment statistics
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Earnings calls: Wolford HY
World events
Finally, here is a rundown of other events and milestones this week.
Monday
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Austria: 70th regular session of the IAEA General Conference begins in Vienna, where high-ranking officials and representatives from member states will discuss issues about nuclear technology.
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Finland: European Arctic Summit continues in Rovaniemi, attended by European Council president António Costa and other European leaders to discuss the EU’s strategic approach to the Arctic region.
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UK: Mark Wild, chief executive of HS2, gives evidence to MPs on the Public Accounts Committee about the troubled high-speed rail project’s current status.
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US: 2026 Women in Defense National Conference begins in Arlington, Virginia, focusing on AI and its use in the military.
Tuesday
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Switzerland: The World Trade Organization publishes its latest World Trade Report on trends and policy challenges on the opening day of the WTO Annual Public Forum.
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UK: The final report from the Thirlwall Inquiry into the crimes of Lucy Letby, the former NHS neonatal nurse convicted of murdering seven babies and attempting to murder seven others at the Countess of Chester Hospital in Chester between June 2015 and June 2016, will be published in Liverpool.
Wednesday
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Hong Kong: Leader John Lee will present the territory’s first five-year plan followed by a policy address aimed at aligning Hong Kong more closely with policymaking in mainland China.
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France: European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen delivers the EU State of the Union annual address at the European parliament in Strasbourg.
Thursday
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France: Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney delivers a special address to the European parliament plenary session in Strasbourg.
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UK: London Fashion Week begins.
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US: United Nations Security Council expected to vote on renewing the mandate of the panel of experts supporting the 1737 sanctions committee on Iran.
Friday
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Denmark: Nato Military Committee Conference begins in Copenhagen. Attendees at the two-day event include Supreme Allied Commander for Europe General Alexus Grynkewich and the Supreme Allied Commander for Transformation Admiral Pierre Vandier. Tomorrow’s agenda includes a joint press conference with Nato Military Committee Chair Giuseppe Cavo Dragone and Danish defence chief Michael Wiggers Hyldgaard.
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Russia: parliamentary elections begin, continuing until Sunday
Saturday
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Germany: 191st Oktoberfest, the world’s largest folk festival, begins in Munich, running until October 4.
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UK: Liberal Democrat party conference begins in Brighton, running until September 22. Separately, Scottish Labour announces the winner of its leadership contest.
