Remember when gambling seemed kind of shady? Illegal in most states and something your hard-working parents frowned upon, mostly because your seedy uncle was always begging them for money to put down on a “sure thing”?
Well, it’s 2026 and seedy uncles are having a moment. There’s almost no limit these days to what you can legally bet on in the United States.
Last year, gamblers using the betting platform Polymarket — company officials prefer to call it a “prediction market” — placed more than $1.2 million in wagers on the Los Angeles wildfires, according to a story by my colleague Hannah Fry.
They bet on how fast the blazes would grow, how long it would take to contain them and how much damage they would do.
One Polymarket user commented on a thread where people could put money on the Palisades fire’s containment date, “That was fun. Thanks everyone. Until the next time!”
Even if that’s not illegal, it’s in spectacularly poor taste.
Betting markets have exploded in popularity
Thanks to the prediction markets, any question can be turned into a virtual game of craps.
Who will win the 2028 presidential election? As of yesterday morning, there was $687 million riding on that question on Polymarket. Vice President J.D. Vance had the best odds, 21%, followed by Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, at 12% each.
Would any of them actually make a good president? Zzzzzzz. Boring! Get some skin in the game or get out!
You can also bet on the future of U.S. interest rates, the prospects of a ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran and the Los Angeles Rams’ odds of winning next year’s Super Bowl.
Sports betting — once strictly forbidden outside of Las Vegas — is a huge part of the prediction markets’ business.
Few guardrails prevent bad actors from abusing markets
There are some limits on who can place certain bets, but they have little to do with old-fashioned notions of decency or good taste. Other gamblers just don’t want to get swindled, so anything that smacks too clearly of insider trading can get you in trouble.
For example, earlier this year, a U.S. soldier was criminally charged for using his access to military intelligence to make $400,000 betting on the ouster of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, just before U.S. forces snatched him from his compound in Caracas.
Other military insiders have been accused of profiting from eerily prescient bets involving U.S. strikes on Iran.
Even beloved YouTuber Mr. Beast — wildly popular for his goofball videos, like a 15-second clip of him trying to pick up dogs of increasing size, which got more than 8 million views — fired a producer for using inside information to win bets about upcoming posts on Kalshi, another popular prediction market.
Is nothing sacred in the manosphere? Also, is it alarming that Mr. Beast has become the adult in the room?
The L.A. fire bets prompted a small effort to regulate
Following revelations about betting on the L.A. fires, a group of U.S. senators led by California Sens. Alex Padilla and Adam Schiff stepped into this extremely transactional, jarringly unsentimental arena to ask an obscure federal agency, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, to restrict betting on natural disasters.
Aside from the dehumanizing nature of it all, the senators worry enterprising gamblers might one day set fires — or interfere with first responders — in an effort to improve their odds.
Essentially, they’re asking the current federal administration to show some compassion, act like adults and prevent people from gaming the system.
Wanna bet on the outcome? That’s not a rhetorical question — we could easily do it and invite the world to join us.
Top stories
(Christina House/Los Angeles Times)
Poll: California voters favor progressive candidates
- California voters favor progressive candidates, but are split over democratic socialism, a new poll finds.
- Speaking of polls: The one showing Bass leading Raman by double digits was bogus, says the company that released it.
- We talked to legal experts to see if releasing a fake poll is legal. They said it depends on the intent.
- The fake poll added to challenges facing the public opinion industry.
Financial maneuvering and the Lakers sale
- Mark Walter’s holding company plans to buy up to $6.5 billion in assets from a troubled life insurer he controls that is at the center of a controversy over his sale of the Lakers.
- Here’s more on the obscure financial maneuver.
- Meanwhile, Jeanie Buss is contesting her family’s sale of its Lakers ownership stake to Bob Iger and Joshua Kushner.
Housing and homelessness
Children and tech
- Opening arguments began Tuesday in a multibillion-dollar lawsuit filed by California and other states against Meta. The states allege Meta intentionally designed its platforms to hook children and lied about the safety of its products.
- OpenAI introduced ‘ChatGPT for Teens’ as AI safety concerns mount
More news
Commentary and opinion
- California columnist Gustavo Arellano‘s message to Catholic voters: Lead Americans in rebuking MAGA in the midterms.
- The actor Jeff Daniels argues that as nuclear tensions spread worldwide, Reagan’s lessons are more relevant than ever.
Editor’s pick
More picks
- After L.A. jazz festival collapses, musicians pack an underground ‘Can’t Cancel Jazz’ pop-up.
- After 25 years in showbiz, Dakota Fanning is as booked and busy as ever.
Things to do
(Myung J. Chun / Los Angeles Times)
Today’s recipe
(Myung J. Chun / Los Angeles Times)
If you want a unique appetizer for your next party or gathering, Found Oyster’s Scallop Tostadas with Yuzu-Apple Vinaigrette might be your next experiment. The dish is a masterclass in flavor, with each bite delivering sweet, savory and sour.
Today’s question
What is your favorite airport to fly into or out of in California and why? Email us at [email protected], and your response might appear in the newsletter this week.
Today’s photo
Members of the Ragu Mutsumi Kai group carry a traditional Japanese “portable shrine” through the streets during the 84th consecutive Nisei Week Grand Parade in Little Tokyo in downtown Los Angeles.
(David Butow / For the Times)
Games
Here’s today’s mini crossword, plus our other free, daily crossword puzzle, sudoku, word search and jigsaw games.
Have a great day, from the Essential California team
Jack Dolan, investigative reporter
Hugo Martín, assistant editor, Fast Break desk
Kevinisha Walker, multiplatform editor
Andrew J. Campa, weekend writer
Karim Doumar, head of newsletters
Shi Bradley, audience intern
How can we make this newsletter more useful? Send comments to [email protected].
